News Story
Opening View: Fed Comments Send Dollar Plunging, Wall Street Soaring
Monday November 23, 2009 07:52:12 EST
By: Joseph Hargett
Weakness in the U.S. dollar has prompted a run on commodities and equities heading into the open, with traders reacting to exit-strategy comments from a Federal Reserve member over the weekend. As a result, U.S. stock futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) are up 95 points at 10,398, or about 98 points above fair value. Specifically, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Sunday that the U.S. should continue buying mortgage-backed securities past the first quarter of 2010, when asset purchases are due to end. Bullard's comments stand in stark contrast to the action of the European Central Bank, which announced its first tightening steps on Friday.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down sharply this morning, falling 0.74% to 75.08 in pre-market activity. Commodities are taking full advantage of the weakening greenback, with December gold futures soaring $18.90 to $1,165.60 an ounce, and crude oil for January delivery jumping 91 cents to $78.38 per barrel in electronic trading.
In earnings news, Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) said that it swung to a fourth-quarter loss of $456 million, or $1.22 per share, from a profit of $48 million, or 13 cents per share, in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, the company earned 28 cents per share. Analysts were expecting a profit of 26 cents per share. Sales were flat at $7.2 billion.
Elsewhere, Ciena Corp. (CIEN) said that it won the auction to buy the Ethernet assets of bankrupt Nortel Networks for $769 million. The winning offer consists of $530 million in cash and $239 million in senior convertible notes. Ciena said it expects the deal to be "significantly accretive" to its operations in fiscal 2011 and that it will offer jobs to at least 2,000 Nortel employees. The transaction is expected to close in the first calendar quarter of 2010.
Finally, Soleil Securities lifted its 2010 earnings targets for Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX). The brokerage firm also reiterated its "buy" ratings for XOM and CVX, citing a rise in forward curve prices for crude oil, which should more than offset lower U.S. natural gas price assumptions. However, Soleil cut its outlook for ConocoPhillips (COP) and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO), stating that the companies face lower refining margins.
Earnings Preview
The earnings calendar is beginning to wind down, with reports from BJ Services Company (BJS), LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (LDK), Analog Devices Inc. (ADI), and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) scheduled for release today. Keep your browser at SchaeffersResearch.com throughout the day for more.
Economic Calendar
This week is shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, but there is no shortage of economic data. We start off slow, with only October's existing home sales on tap today. Tuesday picks up the pace, with preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), September's S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, November's consumer confidence index, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) September home price index.
We hit the mother lode on Wednesday, with October's personal income/spending indexes, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for October, weekly initial jobless claims, October's durable goods orders, the November University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, October's new home sales figures, and weekly U.S. petroleum supplies. The market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and trading wraps up early on Friday due to the holiday.
Market Statistics
Equity option activity on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) saw 1,708,601 call contracts traded on Friday, compared to 1,139,720 put contracts. The resultant single-session put/call ratio arrived at 0.67, while the 21-day moving average held at 0.63.


**The volume data shown above is from the Nasdaq and NYSE exchanges only. It does not include regional volume activity, which means that other daily volume quotes you see may be higher.**

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Overseas Trading
Overseas trading is in fine shape this morning, as eight of the 10 foreign indexes that we track are in positive territory. The cumulative average return on the collective stands at a gain of 1.09%. Most major Asian markets ended higher Monday, as metals stocks were boosted after gold prices rallied to a record. Chinese banks in Hong Kong jumped after a researcher under China's State Council said the Chinese economy is likely to expand more than 10% in the fourth quarter. Gains in Reliance Industries boosted Indian shares after the market heavyweight announced a bid for Dutch firm LyondellBasell. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China rose 3.3%, China Construction Bank jumped 4.1%, and Bank of China added 1.9% in Hong Kong. But in Shanghai, the performance was mixed amid investor caution ahead of China's annual economic-planning meeting at the end of this month. CCB shares gained 0.3% and Bank of China added 0.2%, while ICBC slipped 0.2%.
Turning to Europe, shares climbed, snapping a four-session run of losses. Economic indicators were painting a brighter picture, with private-sector activity in the 16 nations that share the euro continuing to accelerate out of the downturn. Purchasing managers reported the strongest rise in activity in two years during November. Gold hit a record in electronic trading, a move that helped miners advance. Shares of Randgold Resources rose 5.2%, silver miner Fresnillo advanced 4.1% and copper miner Kazakhmys climbed 3.7%. Cyclical auto, chemical, and construction firms also were strong, with Renault up 4.3% after it was upgraded to "outperform" from "underperform" at Credit Suisse due to the group's 44% holding in Nissan. Deal speculation was also helping sentiment in Europe, with shares of chocolate maker Cadbury hitting a record 816 pence and moving up 1.6% to 813 pence a share in morning action. Over the weekend, Bloomberg reported that Swiss food producer Nestle is reviewing its options over making a bid for the firm. Nestle shares rose 1.1%.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DX/Y) rose 0.47% to trade at 75.65 on Friday to log its first weekly gain in three weeks. The dollar advanced versus its major foreign rivals, as investors once again expressed concern that the U.S. economy wouldn't rebound quite as smoothly as expected. In fact, growing aversion to risk drove many traders into the arms of the greenback last week. Against this backdrop, the euro slipped to $1.4860, while the dollar rose to 89.03 yen.
The futures contract on the 30-year bond (US/1 120'28) crept 2/32 higher on Friday. Short-term Treasurys rallied on the session, sending yields on the two-year note to their lowest levels of the year. Investors turned toward the relative safety of bonds after locking in profits from the recent rise in riskier assets. The bond market is also digesting rising concerns that the U.S. economy won't rebound from the recession as quickly or strongly as markets had accounted for.

Commodity Corner
In the face of a strong U.S. dollar, crude futures ended last week on a negative note. The buck's bounce -- triggered by Wall Street's collective loss of risk appetite -- dampened demand for dollar-denominated commodities, as well as riskier assets, such as equities. Meanwhile, Valero Energy (VLO) announced that it will permanently shutter its 210,000 barrel-per-day refinery in Delaware City, due to persistently weak economic conditions. The day's downbeat earnings reports didn't help, either, as traders digested substantial disappointments from Dell and from home builder D.R. Horton (DHI). By the close, the expiring December crude contract shed 74 cents, or roughly 1%, to finish at $76.72 per barrel. The January contract, meanwhile, fell 58 cents to close at $77.74 per barrel.

Elsewhere, gold futures shrugged off the U.S. dollar's advance on Friday. As traders anticipated a deeper correction in the equities market, the malleable metal had no trouble attracting buyers ahead of the weekend. Gold for December delivery ended the day up $4.90 to finish at $1,146.80 per ounce. On a weekly basis, the contract tacked on $30.20, or 2.7%.

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